As the fight to contain Ebola continues, the economic impact is already being felt both in the three most affected countries and throughout the region.
The World Bank reports that Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia could see a loss of $97 million in trade if the outbreak is contained quickly and up to $809 million if containment is delayed. These may not seem like very high figures in US terms but, remembering that these countries are still among the poorest in the world, one can see that the effect could be devastating. Overall, West Africa could see a $32 billion negative impact in 2015.
The World Bank reports that Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia could see a loss of $97 million in trade if the outbreak is contained quickly and up to $809 million if containment is delayed. These may not seem like very high figures in US terms but, remembering that these countries are still among the poorest in the world, one can see that the effect could be devastating. Overall, West Africa could see a $32 billion negative impact in 2015.
According to the World Bank, "Early estimates for growth in Guinea have been halved from 4.5% to 2.4% as a result of the disease. Already among the poorest countries in West Africa with a population of 12 million, Guinea has seen the biggest losses in its agriculture industry. An exodus of farm workers from the countryside has meant lower exports of key products like cocoa and palm oil."
Sierra Leone was in the process of becoming a middle income country with growth rates in double digits. Now forecasts from World Bank indicate zero growth in 2015 as the disease spreads to almost every district in the country.
Liberia is the worst affected country both in terms of cases, deaths and the rapid spread of Ebola. Negative economic growth is possible in 2015 if the disease is not quickly contained. Already the impact has been clear - 6 incoming commercial flights per week, compared to 27 before the outbreak; closure of one of the two largest mining companies; reduction in social and business interaction causing problems for almost every economic sector.
Even countries not directly affected by Ebola are suffering economic hardships. Ghana reports evacuation of non-essential ex-pat personnel by many companies especially in the mining sector. Some local hotels report occupancy rates at 30% or lower.
Help is coming from many sources including CDC, USAID and American Logistics
Aid Network.
The AGS branch in Monrovia reports handling over 700 tonnes of materials on behalf of the World Health Organization. Our branches in Conakry and Freetown are also receiving shipments and expect much more in the coming months.
We can only hope that the assistance will help control the disease. The economic impact will not be restricted to the affected countries, or even the region, if the outbreak continues. Consider that the SARS virus in 2003 is estimated to have had a $50 billion negative impact on the global economy. It infected 8,000 people and caused 800 deaths. Ebola has already infected in excess of 10,000 people, half of whom have died. While reports of the limited cases in the US and elsewhere have possibly been over emphasized, the danger in West Africa is very real.
TW
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